5/4/2023 0 Comments Seil model![]() The estimated basic reproduction number for DS TB was 1.14 and for MDR TB was 0.54, with an amplification rate of 0.011 per year. From our fitting, the model with different transmission rates between DS and MDR TB best captured the Bangladesh TB reported case counts. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of varying combinations of four basic control strategies including distancing, latent case finding, case holding and active case finding, all within the optimal control framework. Sensitivity analysis was used to identify important parameters. In this study, we developed a two strain TB mathematical model with amplification and fit it to the Bangladesh TB data to understand the transmission dynamics of DS and MDR TB. Although the National TB control program (NTP) of Bangladesh is implementing its nationwide TB control strategies, more specific and effective single or combination interventions are needed to control drug-susceptible (DS) and multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB. Tuberculosis (TB) is the seventh leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Bangladesh. We also investigated the effect of treatment rates and amplification on both DS and DR TB prevalence results indicate that inadequate or inappropriate treatment makes co-existence more likely and increases the relative abundance of DR TB infections. Further, sensitivity analysis of the model parameters found that the transmission rate of both strains had the greatest influence on DS and DR TB prevalence. maxR0s,R0rmaxR0s,1, then DS TB dies out but DR TB persists in the population, and if R0s>maxR0r,1 both DS TB and DR TB persist in the population. Both analytic results and numerical simulations suggest that if the basic reproduction numbers of both DS (R0s) and DR (R0r) TB are less than one, i.e. Both analytical and numerical results show that the prevalence of drug-resistant infection increases with an increasing drug use through amplification. In this study we develop a two-strain DS and DR TB transmission model and perform an analysis of the system properties and solutions. Alarmingly, several strains of the causative agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB)-including drug-susceptible (DS) and drug-resistant (DR) variants-already circulate throughout most developing and developed countries, particularly in Bangladesh, with totally drug-resistant strains starting to emerge. Tuberculosis (TB) is an airborne infectious disease that causes millions of deaths worldwide each year (1.2 million people died in 2019). ![]() Two sets of parameters, including the transmission rate, the latent period, the recovery rate, and the proportion of exogenous reinfection, are estimated using the least-squares method and calibrated to data on the incidence of active TB.Īmong some key parameters in the model, the case finding effort turned out to be the most significant impacting component on the reduction in the active TB cases. ![]() We divide the simulation time window into two periods, 1970–20–2012, according to the implementation date of a new TB detection system. We propose a mathematical TB model that includes exogenous reinfection to gain a better understanding of the recent trend for TB incidence. Some key factors explain and characterize the transmission dynamics of Korean TB infection, such as a higher ratio of latent individuals and a new reporting system implemented in 2001, among others. According to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, new active tuberculosis (TB) cases have increased since 2001.
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